Garware Hi-Tech: Scuttlebutt Findings

Notes from meeting with a leading Automotive Styling Center’s National Franchise Sales Manager

  • About 45% of topline for franchisees comes from Auto window films tinting + Vinyl (wrap on top of existing paint – small business advertisement wrap OR affordable replacement of paint option without the expensive repaint cost) + PPF + Architectural Tints
  • Best performing franchisee makes about 75% gross margins and 34% EBITDA
  • About 75% of all auto vehicles would have Sun Control Film applied. They didn’t have such numbers for PPF penetration.
  • PPF market would be about $400mn.
  • Wraps, PPF, Solar Films – all have good demand tailwinds and better prospects ahead for them.
  • Recently self-healing (from a small dent) PPFs and vinyl wraps have been the latest innovations in the industry.
  • 100% of their tinter franchisee locations would be using software and cutting machines. There is a one-time fixed cost of ~$10k and then $100 a month for a film cutting software license. (there are film cutting machines available in the market for about $3k to $5k)
  • Around 10% of new cars are sold with pre-installed window films and these films are just for privacy purposes and not UV protection. However, on high-end cars the quality of pre-installed films is better than starting range cars.
  • All films are ordered through franchisor’s platform. Franchisor aggregates all orders from multiple franchisees and then sends orders out to the vendor.
  • They get Solar Window Films and PPFs from Suntek, 3M, and XPEL.

Notes from meeting with a Neutral Industry Insider who has covered Film Industry for last 10+ years

  • According to him, it is a level playing field between Global and US manufacturers. Lower production cost for Global gets negated by direct sales reach for US manufacturers.
  • Top 5-6 brands control about 50%-60% of the market; 3M, Eastman, XPEL, Garware (Global), Madico, Johnson. And the rest of the market is with many smaller players and most of them are catching-up. It’s a highly competitive market.
  • Global is definitely part of the top tier brands/manufacturers in the US. And Global provides good quality products. Global has been more of a silent player 4-5 years back but lately they have upped their game in terms of marketing and growing the business.
  • Solar window film market is growing at a slower rate than PPF. Solar would be growing about 5%-8%.
  • Price is not the main factor. It’s the quality of the product, relationship with the tinter, TRUST built over several years, standing with the tinter when there is something wrong with the product (warranty service), providing more offerings to the tinters to serve their customers better, providing training – these things are of utmost importance in this game and makes Tinters stick to the brand.
  • There would be about 6000 tinters (auto + architectural) in the US. Market is very fragmented. About 20% of tinters would be exclusively offering only one brand. Remaining tinters would be offering multiple brands. XPEL and Tintworld people are trying to have a professional structure in this line of business by offering franchises. But it’s going to be a long affair for them to be able to grab a bulk of tinters because it’s so fragmented. It is expected that this industry will remain fragmented.
  • Eastman’s architectural window business would be almost similar in size to its Auto window film business.
  • Penetration of PPF in new sold cars would be below 20%.
  • There is opportunity for brands to work directly with new car dealers to have films applied at the showroom level when the car is sold.
  • PPF market shall grow at a faster rate than Auto Window Film market in the future.

Scuttle-butt observations after meeting 20+ tinters in and around Charlotte, NC

  • Most tinter shops were owner run, mainly a one-man army or at the max 2-3 helpers, serving people in their local community for the last many years. So these are mainly blue collar workers, very passionate about cars, who are mainly selling many services like car detailing, wrapping of vehicles, paint correction, window films, PPF, audio enhancement, other interior accessories, etc. But for most of them the bulk of their revenue comes from sun control window films and PPF.
  • They deal with the customers of their local area often and take pride in delivering quality products with exceptional craftsmanship service. They stand by the quality of the product and ensure that they keep delighting their customers. They know that customers living in their area are going to come back to them if anything goes wrong with the product and customers can leave bad reviews for others which would harm their business. So they ensure that the job is done right all the time.
  • Most of them in my area had an exclusive relationship with the film brand and some of them were selling/offering only a single brand for 10+ years. Selling only one brand for 10+ years was telling me loudly about the tinter’s loyalty with the brand.
  • More training is needed for getting better at PPF application than Window Film application. However, moving/switching between brands for final application is not a problem for an experienced tinter.
  • Most of them used software and film cutting/plotting machines. It makes them efficient and the job gets done faster with minimal wastage of the film. At the same time, for PPF, certain areas of the car like fenders, they prefer to apply the PPF themselves rather than a pre-cut PPF because the edges of the fender get better covered. Most of the PPF customers opt for doing just the front portion of the car (hood, fender, and side mirror) and hence covering the edges of the fender well becomes critical.
  • Most customers walking in the shop don’t ask for a particular brand of film. Their main concern is to get a film whose Visible Light Transmission (VLT) number is allowed in their state according to the state law. So it’s all about the service, warranty, and cost of service that the tinter offers.
  • I was also lucky enough to visit SunStoppers (the biggest franchisee of XPEL) located in my city. They have about 5 locations in Charlotte metropolitan city. Very professional and customer centric approach as compared to mom&pop tinters. More products/services offerings, big on social media marketing. Since I googled XPEL, their advertisements started showing up on my Chrome browser and FB news feed. XPEL has clearly been a big winner in gaining market share and has disrupted this industry by having direct tie-ups with the tinters in the form of franchisees and having them sell exclusive XPEL branded products to their customers.
  • I wasn’t able to find a single tinter selling Global brand in my area. It seems like Global has zero presence in Carolina states. However, I checked a few tinters in Texas, Arizona, California, and Maryland states and found tinters who were offering Global brand along with other brands as well.
  • I also noticed that a few tinters in my area were running July 4th, independence day PPF specials – where Full Front package was offered for $699 which usually goes for $1400+ regular price. I called-up that tinter and asked how long the special would last. He said just the week of 4th of July but he shall have a similar special for Labor Day long weekend in September. With such promotions the affordability level will increase drastically and the market will not be limited to just Teslas and high-end cars.

Disc: Invested

ETSY – 15 Points Investment Thesis

ETSY first showed up in my Momentum Algorithm filter in October 2020. Since then I have spent some time on understanding its business model.

In attached document you can find my understanding of its business (so far) with my short 15 points investment thesis.  

Disc: invested and biased.

Note: not an investment advise and please do your due-diligence before investing in it.

Between Parent and Child – Key Takeaways From the Book

Between Parent and Child is an excellent book which helps parents develop “right” skills on how to communicate and what not to communicate with children.

I want to share my KTAs (4.5 pages) from this book with everyone. I hope you end up reading the actual book after going through my KTAs because the examples shared in the book do proper justice to the end messages that became my KTA.

My wife and I hope to re-read my KTAs again and again until we develop the skills mentioned in the book.

Here you go…

Godfrey Phillips India Limited – What is GPIL smoking?

CMP – Rs. 925
Market Cap – Rs. 4808 cr

What does Godfrey Phillips India Limited do?

Godfrey Phillips India Limited (GPIL) is flagship company of Modi Enterprises. The company have two line of businesses. Their main business is Tobacco and the other is Consumer & Retail.

  • Tobacco: GPIL manufactures and distributes iconic brand Marlboro in India under a license agreement with Philip Morris USA. They also own and sell their own cigarette brands in India like Four Sqaure, Red & White, Cavanders, Tipper, and North Pole.
  • Consumer & Retail: The company sells chewing products pan masala brand like Pan Vilas and Raag. It has 100+ 24Seven convenience stores mainly in Delhi and NCR region. In FY2020, 24×7 stores registered gross sales crossing 400cr mark and its net sales contributing about 13.9% to the total net sales of the company. 24Seven did 42cr of sales in FY2013. Company claims 24Seven to be India’s only organized retail chain in the ‘round-the-clock’ convenience store format. However, this is still not a profitable business.

To read entire post please click Godfrey Phillips India Limited – What is GPIL Smoking_24July2020_Amit Rupani CFA.

 

GPS of Russell 2000 gave false directions early last week!!!

I usually spend most of my research time understanding individual businesses. But these days I spare good portion of my time to understand the pulse of the market since this is my first bear market experience. I do have decent portion of cash allocation in my portfolio which I would like to allocate at “right” time. Well, we all know that attempt to time the market is a futile exercise, but history has shown that when a rally in the market is lead by economic sensitive businesses and broader participation, that rally usually has stronger legs to sustain. We will see how bottom is formed in this bear market. But I have a feeling that bottom will not be created until money goes into cyclical businesses of economic sensitive sectors (from defensives) and then that the initial money keeps attracting new money to sustain the rally.

Documenting this exercise will allow me to come back to it when this bear market is over to check how my brain was evaluating the market pulse.

So with that being said – let’s see how markets moved last week 27th April – 1st May 2020.

Click below link to read the full post.

GPS of Russell 2000 gave false directions early last week!!_03May2020_Amit Rupani

Are we seeing a ‘head fake’ rally?

Indian market indices and most individual businesses made 52 week low on 24th of March 2020. Both Nifty & Sensex have made a nice pull back of 21.31% and 21.53% respectively from 24th March 52 week lows. This is a good pull-back rally. But the big question is, is it ‘head fake’ rally OR an actual sustainable rally with longer and sustainable legs. I did some quick checks and made an attempt to find it out.

Based on my findings, my view is that there is a good chance that we are seeing a ‘head fake’ rally. Click here to read more about my findings. Are we seeing a head fake rally_11April2020

All comments/counter view are welcome.